Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrant Registration Reaches 3,878 mt on First Day; August Imports Still Linger at Low of 70,000 mt [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment 9.23

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy ad2512 contract opened at the day's high of 20,310 yuan/mt overnight, then fluctuated downward and hit a bottom of 20,220 yuan/mt, finally closed at 20,285 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,494 lots, and open interest was 10,829 lots, with bears mainly increasing positions.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on September 22, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2511) at 10:15 was 620 yuan/mt.

Warrant Report: Starting from September 22, 2025, the standard warrant generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures officially commenced. On the first day, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 3,878 mt, with total registered volumes by region as follows: Shanghai (1,447 mt), Guangdong (426 mt), Jiangsu (629 mt), Zhejiang (1,045 mt), Chongqing (331 mt), and Sichuan (0 mt).

Industry News: (1) Aluminum alloy imports and exports: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminum alloy imports in August 2025 were 71,000 mt, down 16.7% YoY but up 2.6% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to August 2025 totaled 682,500 mt, down 14.2% YoY. Unwrought aluminum alloy exports in August 2025 were 29,100 mt, up 28.3% YoY and 16.7% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to August 2025 reached 174,300 mt, up 10.7% YoY. (2) Aluminum scrap imports: Domestic aluminum scrap imports in August 2025 were approximately 172,600 mt, up about 25.2% YoY.

Aluminum scrap side: Spot primary aluminum prices experienced a slight correction on Monday compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 20,750 yuan/mt. Baled UBC prices held steady MoM, while shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminum scrap decreased by 100 yuan/mt MoM. In Anhui, aluminum tense scrap quotations collectively dropped by 200 yuan/mt. With over half of the golden September passed, enterprises in parts of Henan, Jiangxi, and Shandong reported that they had started preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday in advance. Amid aluminum scrap shortages, overall market prices remained high. Aluminum scrap prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs this week, with both downside risks and cost support present. From a macro perspective, the US Fed's interest rate cut intensified market volatility. Although domestic tax cleanup policies are in a transition period, medium and long-term, they will push up tax costs for scrap utilization enterprises and be transmitted to bargain down purchasing prices. On the other hand, the tight supply of aluminum scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, especially with scarce shredded aluminum tense scrap resources giving suppliers strong bargaining power. SMM expects the mainstream range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) to hover around 17,300-17,800 yuan/mt, and baled UBC prices to linger between 15,600-16,100 yuan/mt. The market needs to closely monitor the pace of tax policy implementation, the sustainability of downstream stocking demand, and the guidance from primary aluminum prices.

Silicon metal: On September 22, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,300 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt. Silicon prices in Kunming, Tianjin, Shanghai, northwest China, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Xinjiang rose simultaneously.

Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers were concentrated at $2,530-2,560/mt, while domestic spot prices fell by 100 yuan/mt to 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt, with immediate import losses widening to over 200 yuan/mt. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand excluding tax remained at 81-82 baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on September 22, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 49,668 mt, down 94 mt from the previous trading day but up 1,151 mt WoW (September 15).

Summary: Aluminum prices edged down yesterday, with secondary aluminum market offers mixed—some down by 100 yuan/mt, others holding steady. Downstream demand has seen a mild recovery since September, but peak season performance fell short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually scheduled shutdowns, with pre-holiday stockpiling demand providing short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs coupled with stocking demand are supporting prices, but sluggish demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term, with close attention needed on raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as a decision-making recommendation.